GGJ15 prediction

GGJ Predictions for 2015

A day after GGJ2014 has ended, it is obvious the event keeps on growing year by year. But exactly how much? This post documents some predictions for GGJ2015 and it will be interesting to see how close they get.

My prediction is that by GGJ15 will have 31 563 registered jammers, across 615 sites. Together, they will produce 5410 new games.

The calculations use data on number of registered participants, number of sites, and finalized games from GGJ 2009 and onwards. I realize the GGJ 2014 data may still change (some people have been reporting trouble with upload), but I believe the current data provides enough information for a rough first estimate.

For predictions, I did a couple of regression analyses but nothing fancy. The closest fit was a polynomial (2nd order) regression, which provides a R^2 at very close to 1 (perfect fit) on all three datasets.

Below are charts of the regressions with predictions for 2015 inserted in yellow. The numbers are below, just in case someone feels like playing with them a bit more.





Jammers Jam sites Games
2009 1650 53 370
2010 4300 138 900
2011 6500 169 1500
2012 10684 242 2209
2013 16705 319 3248
2014 23460 488 4203

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