GGJ Predictions for 2015

A day after GGJ2014 has ended, it is obvious the event keeps on growing year by year. But exactly how much? This post documents some predictions for GGJ2015 and it will be interesting to see how close they get.

My prediction is that by GGJ15 will have 31 563 registered jammers, across 615 sites. Together, they will produce 5410 new games.

The calculations use data on number of registered participants, number of sites, and finalized games from GGJ 2009 and onwards. I realize the GGJ 2014 data may still change (some people have been reporting trouble with upload), but I believe the current data provides enough information for a rough first estimate.

For predictions, I did a couple of regression analyses but nothing fancy. The closest fit was a polynomial (2nd order) regression, which provides a R^2 at very close to 1 (perfect fit) on all three datasets.

Below are charts of the regressions with predictions for 2015 inserted in yellow. The numbers are below, just in case someone feels like playing with them a bit more.

 

	Jammers	Jam sites	Games
2009	1650	53	370
2010	4300	138	900
2011	6500	169	1500
2012	10684	242	2209
2013	16705	319	3248
2014	23460	488	4203